Will Property Prices Continue to Rise? Full-Year 2025 Data Provides the Answer

Private Home Prices Rose 0.7% in Q4, Full-Year 2025 Growth Moderates to 3.4%

According to the latest flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), Singapore private home prices continued their upward trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2025, though momentum has noticeably moderated.

The overall private residential property price index rose by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, easing from the 0.9% increase recorded in Q3.

For the full year, private residential prices climbed by a cumulative 3.4% in 2025, lower than the 3.9% recorded in 2024, and well below the 6.8% in 2023 and 8.6% in 2022.

The market widely regards this as the most moderate annual growth in the past five years, reflecting a transition towards a phase of healthy, rational price consolidation.

Behind the Moderation: Price-Sensitive Buyers and Disciplined Developers

Analysts note that the moderation in price growth in 2025 does not stem from evaporating demand, but rather from greater price discipline on both the buyer and seller fronts.

Research consultancies highlighted that developers have been notably more mindful of buyer affordability thresholds when pricing units. Even as interest rates eased progressively and transaction volumes rebounded across the year, prices did not spiral out of control. This strategic emphasis on volume over aggressive pricing played a crucial role in keeping full-year price growth in check.

Non-Landed Segment Edges Down Marginally, Outside Central Region Continues to Lead

By property type, the non-landed private residential segment (apartments and condominiums) slipped marginally by 0.1% in Q4, reversing the 0.8% gain posted in Q3.

However, performance diverged significantly across different market segments.

The Outside Central Region (OCR) led the gains, with prices climbing 1% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.8% in Q3.

The Rest of Central Region (RCR) saw prices increase by 0.7%, also markedly higher than the 0.3% gain in the preceding quarter.

In contrast, the Core Central Region (CCR) saw prices decline by 3.2% in Q4, standing in stark contrast to the 1.7% increase seen in Q3.

CCR Decline Reflects Launch Mix Dynamics Rather Than Market Weakness

Market analysts pointed out that the dip in CCR prices does not signify a weakening prime luxury market, but rather reflects the mix of new launches transacted during the quarter.

The bulk of CCR transactions in Q4 came from Skye at Holland. The development moved 662 units during the quarter at a median price of around $2,948 psf, accounting for approximately half of all non-landed transactions in the CCR for the period.

By comparison, major CCR transactions in Q3 were anchored by River Green and UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard, which commanded substantially higher per-square-foot prices, thereby lifting the overall index in that quarter.

In other words, the price movement was largely driven by variations in product mix rather than deteriorating market fundamentals.

Higher Proportion of New Home Sales Supports Overall Price Levels

Across the board, overall prices were underpinned in Q4 primarily by an increased proportion of new home sales.

Data reveals that new home sales accounted for 48% of total transaction volume in Q4, up from 44.3% in Q3.

Several developments sustained median transaction prices above $2,500 psf, including Zyon Grand, Penrith, and The Continuum in the RCR.

At the same time, around 56.6% of private home transactions in Q4 were priced at or above $2 million, notably higher than the 47.1% recorded in Q3, underscoring the growing share of higher-quantum transactions.

Landed Homes Emerged as the Star Performer of 2025

The standout segment in 2025 was the landed housing market.

Landed property prices surged 3.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, marking their strongest single-quarter showing in nearly two years. Despite lower transaction volumes, full-year price growth reached a robust 7.7%, significantly outperforming the 0.9% recorded in 2024.

Analysts believe that declining interest rates improved affordability while bolstering the willingness of both buyers and sellers to transact, driving sustained price appreciation for landed homes given their intrinsic scarcity value.

New Home Sales Hit Four-Year High, Resale Market Rebounds in Tandem

Developers moved an estimated 2,882 new private homes in Q4 2025, propelling full-year new home sales to 10,757 units—a 66% jump from 2024 and a four-year high.

Geographically, new home sales in the RCR, OCR, and CCR all reached their highest levels in nearly four years.

In the resale market, around 14,047 units changed hands over the year, remaining on par with 2024 volumes. Notably, CCR resale volume hit a four-year peak, indicating that brisk launch activity has renewed overall market interest in prime core districts.

Executive Condominiums (ECs) also delivered an impressive performance, with roughly 1,623 units sold throughout 2025. This sales momentum is anticipated to carry over into early 2026 on the back of upcoming new launches.

Rising Land Costs Likely to Push Up Future Launch Prices

Industry observers have also cautioned that upcoming new launch prices face upward pressure.

The Government Land Sales (GLS) tenders in the second half of 2025 saw competitive bidding, with developers placing noticeably more aggressive bids. With escalating land costs, selling prices for new projects slated to launch over the next 12 to 15 months will inevitably be impacted.

2026 Outlook: Volumes May Moderate, Prices Expected to Rise Modestly

Looking ahead to 2026, most consultancies expect transaction volumes to taper slightly from 2025 levels, while overall market fundamentals remain resilient.

Consensus forecasts project private home prices to rise by around 2% to 4% in 2026, with new home sales anticipated to fall between 7,500 and 10,000 units. While this may not match the 2025 peak, overall transaction volumes are still likely to sit above the 10-year historical average.