Fewer Transactions Don't Mean Falling Prices? A Breakdown of Q3 Private Home Performance

Prices Rose While Volumes Dropped 30%: What Signals Is the Singapore Private Housing Market Sending?

Singapore's private residential market witnessed a "price gain amid falling volume" trend in the third quarter.

Flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on 1 October revealed that overall private home prices rose 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, outpacing the 0.5% growth in Q2 and marking the steepest quarterly increase since Q4 2024.

At the same time, overall private home sales volumes tumbled by about 30% quarter-on-quarter, sliding from 6,148 units in Q2 to 4,296 units.

Year-on-year, prices were up 3.4%, while transaction volumes declined by around 20%.

Why did prices and sales volumes diverge? The answer lies in the shifting transaction mix, new project supply, and varying performance across market segments.

Higher Proportion of Higher-Value Deals Drives Overall Price Growth

A notable factor behind the accelerated price growth in Q3 was the rising share of higher-quantum residential transactions.

Transactions priced at S$2 million and above accounted for 53.6% of total private home sales in Q3, up from 49.2% in Q2.

This shift was particularly pronounced in the new home sales market, where the proportion of new private homes sold for at least S$2 million jumped from 52.3% to 71.7% over the same period.

This indicates that Q3 transactions were increasingly concentrated in higher-value units. However, total quantum is also influenced by unit size, layout, and location, so this should not be interpreted as an across-the-board price surge of equal magnitude across all homes.

Mass-Market Homes Lead Gains While Core Central Region Dips Slightly

Non-landed private home prices rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reversing the 0.1% dip seen in Q2. However, performance diverged significantly across the different market segments.

The Outside Central Region (OCR), representing the mass-market segment, posted a 2.2% price increase—the strongest gain among all three regions—rebounding from a 0.1% decline in Q2.

The Rest of Central Region (RCR), which represents the mid-tier market, edged up 0.2%, likewise reversing a 1.2% contraction in the second quarter.

In contrast, the Core Central Region (CCR) inched down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, compared to a 1.8% climb in Q2.

As such, headline price growth does not imply that every region or every development appreciated in tandem.

New Launch psf Prices Rise, While the Resale Market Softens Slightly

Transaction caveats also highlighted contrasting trajectories between the new home and resale markets.

In Q3, the median unit price for new private homes jumped 9.6% quarter-on-quarter to S$2,567 psf, whereas the median resale private home price slipped 1% to S$1,772 psf.

Market analysts attribute this to a scarcity of new project launches in Q3 alongside dwindling unsold inventory in active developments, which pushed transacted prices at certain projects slightly higher than in Q2.

It is worth noting that median psf figures are heavily influenced by the specific mix of projects, locations, and unit types sold during the quarter. Shifts in median prices do not necessarily reflect individual unit appreciation or depreciation.

For buyers, comparing comparable units within the same district, size bracket, and condition offers far more practical guidance than relying purely on overall market medians.

Landed Homes Continue Upward March, Rising 2.8% in Q3

Landed home prices grew 2.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, up slightly from the 2.5% increase recorded in Q2.

Year-to-date, landed home prices have gained 4.9%, with quarterly transaction volumes holding steady at between 500 and 600 units.

Market observers note that the removal of the 15-month wait-out period for private residential property owners purchasing non-subsidised resale HDB flats could enable homeowners looking to adjust their living arrangements to execute their upgrading or right-sizing plans more smoothly, lending baseline support to subsequent transaction activity.

Fewer New Launches a Key Factor Behind the Sales Slump

The slowdown in Q3 transaction volumes was closely tied to the launch schedule of new developments.

With most developers traditionally steering clear of the Hungry Ghost Festival (seventh lunar month), fewer major new projects were rolled out during the quarter, with activity mainly led by developments such as Amberwood at Holland, Lentor Gardens Residences, and Dunearn House.

A leaner selection of new launches directly weighed on sales activity for the quarter.

Across the first three quarters of the year, total private residential sales reached 15,857 units, down nearly 20% compared to 19,793 units over the corresponding period last year.

Beyond seasonal patterns, market watchers also suggest that some buyers took a wait-and-see stance to reassess their purchase timelines following the removal of the 15-month wait-out period and updates to the Primary 1 Phase 2C registration framework.

Nonetheless, a drop in sales volume alone does not point to a structural deterioration in market demand; it must be assessed alongside supply pipelines, pricing dynamics, and subsequent transaction data.

With More Launches Slated for Q4, Will Prices Keep Climbing?

As a broader pipeline of new launches gears up to hit the market in the fourth quarter, industry analysts generally anticipate that private property prices could sustain their upward momentum.

Several market research houses project full-year private home price growth in the range of 3% to 4%.

However, the eventual trajectory will hinge on new launch pricing strategies, buyer affordability, and actual take-up rates. While a fresh influx of launches generates more buying opportunities, it does not guarantee strong sales performance across the board.

The Q3 data serves as a clear reminder for buyers: the Singapore private property market is experiencing heightened divergence. Mass-market homes, new launches, and landed properties have registered steady gains, whereas segments of the CCR and resale market remain largely range-bound or have softened slightly.

Whether purchasing for owner-occupation or long-term investment, buyers should scrutinise specific developments—evaluating price points, location attributes, floor plans, and future resale competition—rather than relying solely on high-level property price indices.

The data in this article is compiled based on URA Q3 flash estimates and media reports; final figures remain subject to official confirmation.