2024 Property Market Starts Slow, Finishes Strong: Year-End Sales Hit 10-Year High!

A Tale of Two Halves: 2024 Property Market Shows Stark Divergence

The property market in 2024 exhibited a clear "tale of two halves" trend. According to data analysis, market performance was subdued in the first half of 2024, dominated mainly by smaller boutique developments, while the number of new units launched hit a fresh low not seen since the first half of 1996. Sales volume mirrored this trend, with only 1,889 units sold—the lowest level since 1996.

A notable exception was the 533-unit Lentor Mansion, which achieved a 75% take-up rate during its launch weekend in March. However, compared to 2023, sales performance across most new launches in 1H 2024 remained relatively muted.

Market sentiment was cautious, with the majority of buyers and investors adopting a wait-and-see posture. This was likely driven by job market uncertainties and persistently high interest rates. Buyers may also have held back in anticipation of highly anticipated mega-projects such as The Chuan Park and Emerald of Katong slated for launch later in the year.

This dynamic suggested that despite an initial slow patch, upcoming sought-after launches would serve as the primary catalyst driving a market rebound.

In late July, Kassia, a 276-unit freehold development along Flora Drive, was launched and achieved a 52% sales rate, laying the groundwork for robust sales momentum post-Hungry Ghost Festival.

The first project launched after the Hungry Ghost Month was 8@BT, a 158-unit development along Bukit Timah Link. Over the weekend of 21–22 September, the project sold 53% of its units at an average price of S$2,719 psf.

Data revealed that new private home sales in Q3 2024 surged by 60% quarter-on-quarter, signalling a marked shift in market sentiment. Analysts attributed much of this turnaround to the US Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point interest rate cut in September.

Sales momentum gathered further pace on 5 October, when Meyer Blue in prime District 15 along the East Coast sold over 50% of its 226 units via a private preview. The project achieved an average transacted price of S$3,260 psf, setting a new benchmark for prime residential properties in District 15.

In addition, Norwood Grand, a 348-unit development in Woodlands, recorded several landmark milestones. Over its launch weekend on 19–20 October, the project achieved an 84% take-up rate, making it the top performer in terms of percentage sold in October. With an average selling price of S$2,067 psf, it also marked the first time a project in Woodlands crossed the S$2,000 psf threshold.

This string of stellar performances underscores that with market sentiment rebounding and macroeconomic tailwinds taking effect, activity in Singapore's residential property market is steadily gaining traction.

Woodlands' First New Private Home Launch in 12 Years, Norwood Grand, Sparks November Market Boom

As the first new private residential launch in Woodlands in 12 years, Norwood Grand's commanding sales performance demonstrated robust buyer confidence and pent-up demand. Mr Mark Yip of Huttons noted that this success highlighted renewed market vibrancy and triggered a concentrated wave of new launches in November. Over a span of just 10 days, a record-breaking six new projects totalling 3,551 units hit the market.

On 6 November, the 367-unit The Collective at One Sophia led the charge, swiftly followed on 9 November by the 366-unit Union Square Residences on Havelock Road. The 916-unit The Chuan Park launched on 10 November. Market sentiment reached a crescendo over the weekend of 15–16 November, when three developments launched simultaneously: the 846-unit Emerald of Katong, the 552-unit Nava Grove, and the 504-unit Novo Place Executive Condominium (EC).

Data analysis indicates that developers moved 2,557 units in November, marking the highest monthly sales figure since March 2013, when 3,489 units were launched and 2,793 units were sold.

The stellar performance in November lifted total developer sales for the first 11 months of 2024 to 6,344 units. Full-year sales are expected to comfortably surpass 6,500 units, exceeding the 6,421 units recorded in 2023.

This underscores the underlying strength and resilience of Singapore's property market, reaffirming real estate's enduring appeal as an asset class for wealth preservation and capital appreciation.

The market's lively performance not only reflects steady demand, but also demonstrates strong buyer reception towards well-positioned new launches, providing a firm foundation for future growth.

The subdued private residential market throughout the first three quarters of 2024 culminated in an atypical year-end flurry of activity. Prompted by earlier economic headwinds and waiting for improved sentiment, developers had repeatedly deferred project launches, resulting in an unprecedented concentration of launches in November.

This shift from cautious hesitation to decisive action was largely driven by the impending year-end holiday lull and the marked improvement in buyer sentiment since Q3. This sudden surge transformed November into an extraordinarily busy launch window, defying traditional seasonal slowdowns and fostering a vibrant market climate.

However, the blockbuster November sales figures also spurred market speculation regarding the possibility of further cooling measures. While November's numbers were undeniably impressive, they do not necessarily justify immediate policy intervention, as this spike was primarily supply-driven by a backlog of launches entering the market at the same time.

The market's bustling performance was largely an outcome of developers clustering their launches before year-end, rather than an unchecked, runaway surge in broad-based demand. Nonetheless, November's strong showing delivers positive signals for future market stability, while keeping attention firmly fixed on potential regulatory shifts.

Full-Year 2024 New Home Sales Likely on Par with 2023; Policy Intervention Unlikely

Cumulative new home sales for 2024 are projected to finish broadly in line with 2023, making new government cooling measures unlikely in the near term.

Whether intervention is deemed necessary will depend on two critical indicators: whether this sales momentum carries over into Q1 2025, and whether property prices outpace broader GDP growth significantly.

While the authorities continue to monitor the market closely, fresh measures are only anticipated if there are definitive signs of sustained over-heating.

Current market dynamics indicate that despite the exceptional November sales tally, overall market fundamentals remain stable without warranting immediate cooling measures. Going forward, policy adjustments will hinge on long-term market trends, particularly the durability of transaction volumes and the alignment of price growth with economic fundamentals.