Will Property Prices Keep Rising? Is the Seller’s Stamp Duty Revision Just an Appetiser?

Tightening of Seller's Stamp Duty: Does It Signal Another Round of Property Cooling Measures?

In early July, the government announced revisions to the Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) rates and holding period, aimed at curbing short-term speculative flipping. Under the revised policy, buyers selling their residential property within four years will be subject to a stamp duty ranging from 4% to 16%, marking a notable tightening from the previous three-year holding period and lower tax rates.

However, market analysts generally view this as a "calibrated tweak" that is unlikely to reverse prevailing market trends overnight.

Market Sentiments Remain Resilient as New Launches Continue to Sell Well

The newly launched LyndenWoods has become a key market barometer — as the first project to debut following the SSD revision, it sold 95% of its units on launch day, underscoring robust buying momentum.

In addition, the tender for the Chuan Grove private residential GLS site drew keen interest, with the top bid coming in at $1,376 psf per plot ratio (psf ppr) — second only to the Bayshore Road site, marking the second-highest record for a 99-year leasehold site!

URA data shows that new private home sales reached 4,634 units in the first half of 2024, more than doubling the volume from the same period last year. Looking ahead to July and August, over 10 new launches comprising around 8,000 units are slated to enter the market, keeping market activity elevated.

What Do Analysts Say? Are More Measures on the Way?

Analysts note that the SSD revision will have limited short-term impact. However, if home price growth accelerates significantly, the possibility of the government introducing further cooling measures within the next 12 months cannot be ruled out.

Morgan Stanley and Barclays previously warned that pockets of heat in Singapore's property market driven by speculative interest could prompt further government intervention.

Or No Further Action? Some Analysts Hold a Different View

Other analysts point out that the property market is currently well-managed and under control, with price growth moderating. Factoring in global economic uncertainties and upcoming macroeconomic headwinds such as reciprocal tariffs, an immediate fresh round of cooling measures seems unlikely.

The government typically monitors policy impact over time before taking further steps. Existing frameworks such as ABSD and TDSR have already played a stabilising role, making the risk of imminent further tightening relatively low.

Since the ABSD for foreigners was raised from 30% to 60% in 2023, the proportion of foreign buyers has tapered noticeably. Should Singapore need to attract more global talent moving forward, the government could even review existing tax structures.

Whether you are an owner-occupier or an investor, the key question remains:

Buy now? Wait? Or stay on the sidelines?

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