Where Is Demand for New Launches Headed in 2025?

Q1 Property Price Growth Moderates: Early Signs of Market Cooling as Housing Supply Expands

Price growth across both HDB resale flats and private residential properties in Singapore moderated in the first quarter of 2025, signalling a potential stabilisation of the property market. The Minister for National Development noted that this shift comes amid a steady ramp-up in public and private housing supply, alongside a dip in overall transaction volumes.

According to flash estimates released by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) and the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on 1 April, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) rose by 1.5% in Q1 2025—slowing from 2.6% in Q4 2024 to register its lowest quarterly growth in five quarters. Meanwhile, private home prices edged up by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, moderating substantially from the 2.3% gain in the previous quarter.

HDB Resale Market: Supply Growth Checks Price Gains

The moderation in HDB resale price gains comes on the back of steady Build-To-Order (BTO) launches and the largest-ever Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise conducted in February this year. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that a tight supply of flats reaching their five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP)—caused by pandemic-related construction delays in recent years—continues to place upward pressure on the resale market.

However, this supply crunch is poised to ease: around 8,000 HDB flats will reach their MOP in 2025, rising to 13,500 units in 2026, and surging to 19,500 units entering the resale market in 2028.

Analysts pointed out that the slower pace of price appreciation also indicates emerging buyer price resistance, particularly with gains narrowing significantly for mid-to-large flat types. For instance, four-room flat prices grew by 1.9% this quarter, down from 2.2% previously, while five-room flat prices rose by 2.1%, moderating from 2.7% in the preceding quarter.

Against a backdrop of heightened macroeconomic uncertainties, the HDB resale market is expected to remain resilient, underpinned by healthy demand from private property downgraders and HDB upgraders alike.

Private Housing Market: Volumes Dip as Prices Stabilise

URA data revealed that overall private home transaction volumes fell by 15% quarter-on-quarter, with price growth tapering to 0.6%. Non-landed private home price gains moderated across all market segments—the Core Central Region (CCR), Rest of Central Region (RCR), and Outside Central Region (OCR).

Even so, the Government continues to ensure an ample private housing pipeline through the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme: private housing supply stands at 8,500 units in the first half of 2025, with 5,000 units on the Confirmed List—nearly 60% higher than the 2021–2023 average.

A total of 2,000 Executive Condominium (EC) units are slated for release this year, representing the highest annual supply in recent years and nearly double the 2021–2023 average.

Developers and Homebuyers Turn More Cautious

While stabilising interest rates helped bolster buyer sentiment, slowing economic growth alongside geopolitical and global trade tensions have prompted private home seekers to tread more cautiously.

New home sales have seen a rebound since late 2024, driven primarily by attractively priced, well-located launches in the suburban OCR and city-fringe RCR. However, most new launches lined up for the remainder of 2025 are situated in the prime CCR. Given the higher price quantums, sustaining this sales momentum could prove challenging.

With pent-up demand in the suburbs and city fringe largely absorbed, realistic pricing strategies and well-conceived project design will be paramount for upcoming developments to maintain sales momentum.