HDB Price Growth Moderates: Could the 15-Month Wait-Out Period Be Lifted? A Potential Turning Point for Private-to-HDB Buyers

If HDB resale price growth continues to moderate, the government may consider removing the current 15-month wait-out period imposed on private residential property owners before they can purchase a resale flat.

During a recent media doorstop visit to the Toa Payoh Ridge BTO project, the Minister for National Development noted that the authorities are closely monitoring HDB resale price trends and may prudently review the measure depending on market conditions.

According to data released by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) on 25 April, HDB resale prices rose by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025. This represents a significant deceleration compared to previous quarters (2.6% in 4Q 2024 and 2.7% in 3Q 2024). This moderation provides greater policy leeway to review the restriction.

Why was the "wait-out period" introduced?

The 15-month wait-out period was implemented in September 2022 as part of a package of property cooling measures, when the HDB resale market was buoyant and prices for 5-room and executive flats were climbing rapidly. Under this rule, private property owners (PPOs) must wait 15 months after selling their private homes before buying a non-subsidised resale flat.

However, seniors aged 55 and above (and their spouses) moving to a 4-room or smaller resale flat are exempt from this requirement.

Is the policy's impact waning?

Market data indicates that the policy initially curbed demand and price growth for 5-room flats. Huttons Asia's Senior Director of Data Analytics, Lee Sze Teck, noted that the restriction successfully deterred cash-rich private home downgraders from flooding the HDB market initially, leading to a temporary dip in both transaction volumes and average prices for 5-room and executive flats.

However, from early 2024, as the first wave of private property owners cleared their 15-month wait-out period and returned to the market, demand for larger flats rebounded swiftly. Resale prices resumed their upward trajectory, returning to the buoyant levels seen prior to 3Q 2022. In hindsight, the policy appears to have paused market momentum for only about 15 months.

Since the policy was introduced in 2022, million-dollar HDB transactions have climbed steadily year after year. In 2025 to date, there have been 368 million-dollar deals for 5-room or larger units, significantly outpacing the 229 transactions logged during the same period last year. Meanwhile, million-dollar 4-room transactions have surged from 93 to 254.

A need for caution before unwinding the rule?

While some market watchers are calling for the removal of the wait-out period, several experts believe a cautious approach is warranted:

Tight supply remains: The supply of larger flats reaching their five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP), particularly in mature estates, remains constrained.

Risk of a price rebound: Lifting the wait-out period prematurely could trigger an influx of buyers with healthy budgets, potentially reigniting price growth in the resale market.

Strong underlying demand: The HDB resale market continues to be supported by upgraders and downsizers alike—whether moving from smaller to larger flats, or transitioning from older flats to newer homes—underpinning robust price resilience.

Gradual adjustments on the horizon

To ease supply constraints, the government ramped up the supply pipeline, completing some 75,800 BTO flats by March 2025, with more new completions expected over the coming years.

Nevertheless, even with increased supply, it typically takes one to two years for market effects to filter through. Consequently, timing will be crucial should the authorities decide to lift the wait-out period.

What would happen if the wait-out period is lifted?

Private property owners would regain greater flexibility in their housing plans, allowing them to transition seamlessly into an HDB flat upon selling their private homes. The move may not necessarily trigger sharp market volatility, given that HDB price growth has already moderated and BTO supply is relatively plentiful.

Even so, HDB resale prices have climbed by nearly 19.6% cumulatively since 3Q 2022. Even if future upside is more contained, policy adjustments will still require careful calibration.

Second quarter performance to provide crucial guidance

Should 2Q 2025 figures show that HDB resale price growth remains modest, market consensus is that the government may prudently assess lifting the wait-out period in the second half of 2025. This would come as welcome news for downgraders looking to move from private property to an HDB flat, providing greater liquidity and flexibility across the housing market.

For homeowners looking to right-size or cash out in the current property cycle, policy developments over the coming quarter could prove pivotal in deciding the optimal timing for their next move.

If you are planning to sell your private property and transition to an HDB flat, or wish to explore financing options, eligibility criteria, and asset restructuring strategies, feel free to drop us a message to find out more.