As New Launch Supply Arrives, Will the Resale Market Take a Hit?

CCR Bucks the Trend with a 4% Rise: Is the Property Market Quietly Diverging?

January Market: Transactions Slow Down, but Prices Hold Firm

The private resale market in January may seem quiet on the surface, yet it signals an important development.

Even with an overall slowdown in transaction activity, non-landed private resale prices still inched up by 0.5% month-on-month. While modest, this increase demonstrates that prices have not experienced any notable correction despite lower transaction volumes.

In terms of volume, 853 units were transacted during the month, down 3.5% from December. The market is undoubtedly turning more cautious, but there is no sign of panic selling.

This is not a "cold market"; rather, it is a phase where buyers and sellers are engaging in more rational negotiations.

Why Did the Core Central Region Outperform?

What truly deserves attention is the structural divergence across segments.

Behind the slight overall price growth, luxury private homes in the Core Central Region (CCR) climbed 4% in a single month, outperforming other market segments by a wide margin.

In contrast, the Rest of Central Region (RCR), which represents the mid-tier segment, slipped 0.2%, while the mass-market Outside Central Region (OCR) retreated 1.6%.

In other words, while the mass market adopted a wait-and-see stance, prime central assets charted their own independent course.

On a year-on-year basis, all three sub-markets continued to log positive growth, showing that baseline price support remains resilient. However, in the near term, the performance gap between regions is widening.

Buyers Are More Prudent, but Not Exiting

Property data analysts note that while the current demand environment has turned more cautious, price support remains solid.

Buyers have become more discerning, but they have not walked away from the market.

Instead of chasing price surges, they are focusing more on unit quality, fair valuations, and long-term potential.

Sellers, on their part, have not drastically lowered their expectations either.

The market has entered a "rational phase" rather than a downward cycle.

How Will New Launch Supply Impact the Market?

Looking ahead, the key factor influencing structural trends will be new housing supply.

More than 11,100 new private residential units (excluding Executive Condominiums) are slated for launch this year, with over 80% concentrated in the RCR and OCR segments.

These are precisely the market segments favoured by HDB upgraders.

With a large wave of new launches entering the market, mid-tier and mass-market resale units will face more direct competition, which may place some pressure on price growth and transaction momentum.

In contrast, the CCR faces limited new supply and enjoys a different buyer demographic, leaving it relatively insulated from such headwinds in the short term.

Not a Market Downturn, but a Structural Shift

The January data does not indicate a softening market, but rather a more pronounced phase of structural divergence.

The core region remains resilient, while the mid-tier and mass-market segments navigate supply headwinds. The key question in today's market is no longer simply whether prices will "rise or fall", but rather "which segment offers stronger support".

In this environment, choosing the right location and the right asset matters far more than just timing the broader market.